TSMC and Apple Aftermath

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semiwiki.com, Jan. 20, 2019 – 

TSMC reported an in line quarter, as expected and also reported down Q1 guidance, also as expected. The only thing some investors may have been caught off guard about is the magnitude of the expected drop, 14%, from $9.4B to $7.35B. This is the largest quarter over quarter drop for TSMC in a very long time. Importantly for TSMC, 7NM was 23% of business, so leading edge remains very solid and 20NM and below was half of all business.

CAPEX is being cut, as we had projected, by several hundred million dollars, probably at least 5% and the cuts may get deeper as time goes along. We expect most of the cuts to be in H1 2019 with H2 2019 left open to see how business recovers.

We have been very clear about the CAPEX cuts and "trickle down" impact from Apple. We were interviewed on Bloomberg TV 10 days ago regarding Apple and had specifically called out TSMC as the most impacted and the overall capex cuts;

For any one who was paying attention over the last year this slow down should come as no surprise. We don't expect a large downtick in the stocks as the news should be well expected. It is, none the less, another slug of bad news, in what we expect to be an earnings season of a flow of negative news bites. We think it will be hard to escape the negative flow and likely further downward number revisions.

To be clear we still love TSMC and think they are the greatest foundry ever and right now, the most advanced chip maker. However if demand sucks theres not a lot you can do about it, no matter how good you are. Apple is 20% of TSMC's business and chips for mobile are obviously well beyond that so the impact on TSMC will be significant and it will take a while to work out.

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