Chip Forecasts, Drivers Diverge

By Rick Merritt, EEtimes, HALF MOON BAY, Calif, Jan. 12, 2016 – Forecasts of semiconductor revenues in 2016 and what's likely to drive them longer term vary widely among analysts. China will be key factor but one nearly impossible to predict, they agreed at an annual event for chip executives here.

Bill McClean of IC Insights is currently the bull, predicting four percent revenue growth in 2016. Handel Jones of International Business Strategies (IBS) is the bear, forecasting a 1.5% decline that could slide to a negative three percent when he updates his crystal ball at the end of the month. In the middle, Gartner expects 1.9% growth.

Rising GDP, upbeat guidance from Intel and TSMC and plans to tighten capacity growth among DRAM vendors makes McClean optimistic. He predicts electronic system sales will be up 2% and chip capital equipment will be up 1% this year. Long term, chip revenues could average 6-7%, he said.

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